CHINA's Growth Story-The Way Forward....

THE BIG QUESTION: Will the economic miracle run out of steam?

China’s growth story so far has been spectacular to say the least. According to data released on 16^th of August, the world’s no. 1 exporter has surpassed Japan to become the 2^nd largest economy; just behind the U.S. -Japan had managed to keep its second spot in terms of economic muscle for the last 43 years, so dethroning Japan was a significant milestone. But “wait” before you think everything’s fine with the dragon economy-it is slowly, but surely losing its steam.

There’s no denying the fact that it had recorded a massive 11.9% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010. But Q2 figures haven’t been that encouraging-10.3% is the growth rate, a sharp fall of about 1.5%. There are several economic threats that are haunting the Chinese economy.

A major contributor to the slowdown has been the “Real estate bubble” that has been building up. Excessive investment and speculative purchases is driving prices in the real estate sectors to unsustainably high levels. The government has phased out $586-billion stimulus spending, tightening curbs on lending and checking spiraling property prices, and thereby cooling growth in the property sector. Curbs on spending would directly and proportionally affect growth in the coming time.

Second factor that seems to plaguing the Chinese economy is the apparent upsurge in workers who have begun pushing for higher wages and better working conditions. According to estimates by Deutsche Bank –“the minimum wage increase is to be around 20 per cent in most provinces and cities”. Another report by World Bank mentioned that the average rural wages rose 16.4 per cent in the first quarter of the 2010 from a year earlier.

The third problem that China faces is rising raw material prices. China's export growth remains strong, though rising costs for raw materials have eroded the country's cost advantage. It would be worthwhile to note here that during the first half of 2010, the total value of imports and exports, accounted for nearly 37 percent of the Chinese GDP.

Other factors include the steep fall in Industrial Production. It experienced a surprisingly sharp slowdown to a growth rate of 13.7%, down from 16.5% in May 2010. Some economists are also worried that stagflation -- inflation coupled with lower growth -- could emerge, although it seems highly unlikely.

It is imperative for China to raise the bar when it comes to the quality of economic development. In 2009, China’s urban rural divide widened to its highest since 1978. The fact of the matter remains that China is still a developing nation over 40 million below the poverty line. Overtaking Japan in terms of GDP is not going to change the basic truth. China’s per capita income is over 10 times lower than Japan’s and its population is 10 times bigger. It is a rapidly ageing country and its one child policy shows signs of becoming a burden.

China’s growth is not sustainable. It has polluted rivers, severe air pollution & large scale deforestation. By 2020, China is expected to have 400 million tonnes of rubbish, which is equal to the entire waste generated on the planet in 1997.

Despite all this, the Chinese are optimistic about their economy. The government has said that a slowdown is good in the long-term as policymakers try to reduce the country's heavy reliance on exports and investment to drive growth. The government sees this phrase as mid course correction period rather than a slowdown of the economy. The focus is now being shifted to domestic markets to compensate for slowing of export markets. China has more than one million-millionaires today. Relatively strong job creation in the recent times has helped support robust consumer demand which is strengthening China’s inward growth.

A long-term estimate by the World Bank research suggests that China's annual economic growth rate will fall to an average of 7 per cent in 2016-2020 - about the level the government has said is its target for sustainable growth.

So, to sum it all, China faces a lot of economic challenges in the form of above mentioned problems. However through effective policy formulation, they can slowly get back on the track of growth-growth which is both sustainable and inclusive.

-Tejas Singh

Adolf Hitler & His Ideology

"By the skillful and sustained use of propaganda, one can make a people see even heaven as hell or an extremely wretched life as paradise."-Hitler's views on totalitarianism

Adolf Hilter is a name which we all have heard a lot but know quite little. As we all know Adolf Hitler was an absolute dictator of Germany, who was actually extremely patriotic and a German nationalist. He was not only anti- Jew but was a bundle of "anti-" attitudes - anti-democratic and anti-Republican. He was an ardent Social Darwinist, which means that he believed that the process of survival of the fittest by natural selection should be artificially speeded up by the government, for example by killing 'incurables' and various 'undesirables'.

Hitler joined the well known Nazi party in 1922 because he was anxious and furious over the defeat of Germany in World War I and very harsh provisions of treaty of Versailles. And he was of belief that it was entirely because of Jews and republic government of Germany. He through his magnetic and ironic charisma was able to inspire millions of fellow Germans that Germany is in grave danger. He was able to persuade them to take “life or death struggle” to save their country.

IN 1933 Hitler became the chancellor of Germany and took power in his hands. In 1934, upon the death of German President Hindenburg in August 1934, he consolidated himself as absolute dictator.

Hitler had two dreams. The first was to bring together all Germans in a vast 'Greater Germany'; the second was the expansion of Germany into the virtually 'boundless' territory of the Soviet Union. After all, Germany has briefly defeated Russia in 1917-1918, but this victory had been of no practical use while they faced defeat in Western Europe. In Operation Barbarossa he gambled all - and lost disastrously.

In fact during second world war also , when Germany was facing huge success initially and had already defeated and captured the arch rival France and huge portions of east Europe including Austria , Hungary ,Czech republic , Slovakia ,Poland , Hitler’s main concern and anxiousness was to taste the rich fruits of Soviet Union .

This was in February, 1942 when German army attacked Stalingrad, a city in Soviet Union that turn out to be the turning point of the war. The people of the city come out in support of army and German army faced one of its major defeats. It was amongst the bloodiest in the history of warfare, with the upper estimates of combined casualties coming to nearly two million.

Hitler completely underestimated the power of Soviet Union. Then the Soviet Union bounced back and turned out to be the main reason for defeat of Germany in Second World War. Germany faced forces from both sides, Soviet Union from east and Britain with other allied powers from west. And on 30th April 1945, Russian army entered Berlin and Hitler committed suicide on the same day with newly wed wife Eva Braun. And with this come the end of the most terrified dictatorship ever in the world.

By: Aman Maggu

Five MYTHS about IMMIGRATION

Keeping in view the latest Bill by Barack Obama penalizing firms having more than 50% people working on job visas, here a reality check. Its an older post of kaleidoscope but is more relevant now. 


Source- HT
(The author wrote addressing the US citizens)
Despite the fact that US is a nation of immigrants  or perhaps because of it  immigration continues to be one of America’s most contentious topics. The new law in Arizona authorising police to arrest individuals who cannot show documents proving that they are in the country legally has set off a fresh bout of acrimony. But as in the past, much of the debate is founded on mythology. Here are some of the myths:

1.)Immigrants take jobs from American workers

Although immigrants account for 12.5 percent of the US population, they make up about 15 percent of the workforce. They are overrepresented among workers largely because the rest of our population is aging: Immigrants and their children have accounted for 58 percent of US population growth since 1980. This probably won’t change anytime soon. Low US fertility rates and the upcoming retirement of the baby boomers mean that immigration is likely to be the only source of growth in what we call the “prime age” workforce  workers ages 25 to 55  in the decades ahead. As record numbers of retirees begin drawing Social Security checks, younger immigrant workers will be paying taxes, somewhat easing the financial pressures on the system.

Immigrants tend to be concentrated in high- and low-skilled occupations that complement  rather than compete with  jobs held by natives. As a result, immigrants experience higher employment than natives during booms  but they suffer higher job losses during downturns.

2.)Immigration at an all-time high; most came illegally

The historic high came in 1890, when immigrants made up 14.8 percent of US population. Today, about two-thirds of immigrants are here legally, commonly known as “green card” holders. And of the approximately 10.8 million immigrants who are in the country illegally, about 40 percent overstayed their visas.

It’s worth noting that although the unauthorized immigrant population includes more people from Mexico than from any other country, Mexicans are also the largest group of lawful immigrants. Apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border have declined by more than 50 percent over the past four years. This decline is largely due to the recession, but stepped-up border enforcement is playing a part.

3.)Today’s immigrants are not integrating into society

The integration of immigrants remains a hallmark of America’s vitality as a society. Although some people complain that today’s immigrants are not integrating into US society as quickly as previous newcomers did, the same charge was leveled at virtually every past wave of immigrants, including the large numbers of Germans, Irish and Italians who arrived in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Today, as before, immigrant integration takes a generation or two. Learning English is one key driver of this process; the education and upward mobility of immigrants’ children is the other. On the first count, today’s immigrants consistently seek English instruction in such large numbers that adult-education programs cannot meet the demand, especially in places such as California. 

However, the unauthorised status of millions of immigrants can interrupt integration. For example, illegal immigrants are ineligible for in-state tuition, making higher education  out of their reach. 

4.)Curbing illegal crossings will make us safe

The job of protecting the nation’s borders is immense, encompassing nearly 7,500 miles of land borders, 12,380 miles of coastline and a vast network of sea ports, international airports, ports of entry along the Mexican and Canadian borders and visa-issuing consulates abroad.

Our southwest border is more a classic law enforcement challenge than a front line in the war on terrorism. Antiterrorism measures rely heavily on intelligence gathering and clandestine efforts that are unrelated to border enforcement.

The seasoned enforcement officials  contend that if we provided enough visas to meet the economy’s demand for workers, border agents would be freed to focus on protecting the nation from truly dangerous individuals.

5.)Reform cannot happen in an election year

The politics of immigration can be explosive, especially as elections near, with the result that Congress infrequently updates immigration laws. However, all the significant immigration bills enacted in recent decades were passed in election years.

This list dates back to the Refugee Act of 1980, which established our system for humanitarian protection and refugee and asylum admissions. Next came the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which made it illegal to hire unauthorised immigrants and provided amnesty for 2.7 million illegal immigrants. The Immigration Act of 1990 increased the number of visas allotted to highly skilled workers. And the 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act charged immigration agencies with implementing significant new law enforcement mandates.

Legislative attempts to make urgently needed changes fizzled in the House in 2005 and in the Senate in 2006 and 2007, and the to-do list for this Congress is substantial. But ruling out immigration reform, whether because Congress has other priorities or because it’s an election year, would be a mistake. The outline for immigration legislation that Senator Charles Schumer (NY) and his Democratic colleagues unveiled last week, together with the uproar over the Arizona law, may help convince lawmakers that there’s no time like now.

METER JAM IN MUMBAI AND Other Major Cities

Today I felt and understood the real meaning of "One India One Practice". I felt that the auto drivers of Delhi are rude and so choosy about which passengers to ferry, where to go and what to charge because of huge demand for such services in a place like Delhi where people are tripping off its brink. Most of you must had such bitter experiences where auto rickshaw driver wasn't going in the direction where you wanted to go (oh! my bad luck), overcharging ( dear see the inflation rates) and his meter seems to have died a premature death with no chances of revival. But now I know, its a universal practice here in India. You could find those rude and overcharging rickety autos and taxis in all major Indian cities.

Its what the METER JAM organised today, 12th August showed. People from around the country told their stories of when the auto or taxi drivers refused to carry them when they needed to be at some place urgently or when the little pocket money saved by the students for the next movie is demanded by the drivers because he will settle for no less. People pledged on www.meterjam.com not to hire the autos and taxis on Thursday to show THEIR unity against the auto and taxi unions. Ones who had cars ferried others to their places and many took buses and Metros to their destinations.Well, a staggering 37,000 people in Mumbai alone joined the campaign with Delhi being the second city from where large number of people also participated along with people from Bangalore and Chennai.

It was the first time that the harassed passengers around the county had a way of showing their anger and protest against these injustices happening everyday in every corner of the country. Our state governments issue special helpline numbers and guidelines against such illegal practices of the auto and taxi drivers but these numbers are defunct or inefficient everytime. Maybe it has just become another source of earning dirty money by our cops and transport officials. The campaign has given hope to the people and are already asking to hold such campaigns every month or even every day till such malpractices are weeded out.

If you also want to show your protest and be a part of this campaign against the dadagiri of auto and taxi drivers, voice your views and log on to meterjam.com and tell those rude drivers that they can no longer take us for granted and we are not at their mercy. Suffer No longer, No more.

By Rahul Bansal