Showing posts with label Decoding Jargon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decoding Jargon. Show all posts

Mar 12, 2010

Decoding The Jargon: Hedging..



Hedge your investments to weather tough times



What
: Hedging allows a risk-free investor to transfer his risks by paying some cost to a risk taker


Why
: Hedging is important because it allows its investments as per his risk apetite


How
: Some famous instruments of hedging are futures and options that are traded through stock exchanges


When everything is going your way, it looks natural to get carried away by the upside and completely forget the downside

When you are crossing a road, looking to your left is just as important as looking to your right. This rule could be applied even to your investments. But many investors forget this simple rule when they are standing in the middle of markets going up and down. When everything is going your way, it looks natural to get carried away by the upside and completely forget the downside. Then one fine day, you get knocked down by something coming from the other side. For this simple reason, it is always better to keep your investments hedged if you are not sure if you could survive unexpected knocks.

Think of hedging as a kind of insurance that you buy to protect yourself from unforeseen losses.

Hedging could be used in a wide range of circumstances. The techniques of hedging would be as much relevant to your leaking umbrella as to your investments. You keep the second option ready, just in case. Like insurance, hedging involves participation of a risk-taker and someone who is risk-averse. For transferring the risk or what we call hedging, a risk-averse person has to pay a price to a risk-taker.

Hedging keeps a risk-averse person protected from a negative event while someone else assumes the risk in the hope that the negative may not materialize.

The key to hedging is that it allows limiting of loss on the downside. However, at the same time, the cost involved in hedging leads to reduction of upside potential of profit. The risk-taker makes some profit in terms of the price received from the hedger in case the negative event does not actually materialize.

If Hedging is a reduction of risk at the cost of reduction of potential profit, then why anybody would go for hedging?

Hedging is closely connected with the equation of risk-return trade-off. As per the risk-return equation, to generate a higher return you may have to take a higher risk.

A lower risk investment generates a lower return. That’s the normal equation the market follows—it is risk that’s ultimately getting translated into money. Interestingly, all of us have the same appetite for money but all of us may not be having the same appetite for taking risk.

The solution is to go for a compromise. Be satisfied with that much return which is commensurate with your risk-taking appetite. If you never put yourself in a situation offering higher risk than your risk-taking appetite, then you would probably never need to hedge.

But it’s at this point that many slip. The problem is that the equation of risk and return doesn’t come clearly written on the face of your investments. You have to judge for yourself. You may realize only after making an investment that you have entered a wrong lane. Hedging, in a way, provides you a chance to set your investments on the right track, as a result of which you are back to the level of your risk-taking appetite. However, as I said, you have to sacrifice some of the returns on your investments. So, before going for hedging, it is important to make some evaluation based upon its cost and benefit. A long-term investor may decide to ignore any short-term fluctuations rather than sacrifice a part of the profit. It all depends upon individual circumstances.

How can we hedge?

The simplest approach would be to create a natural hedge around your investments. Remember this age-old advice from simpletons: never put all your eggs in the same basket. Diversification works as a natural hedge for your investments. Some of your investments would perform well, some would perform badly but diversification on the whole ensures that you get a balanced return during normal times. But diversification alone can’t always fully protect your investments. A more aggressive approach would be to use derivative instruments for hedging. Many derivative instruments such as options, futures and other derivatives of more exotic kinds are available. Derivatives could be used to hedge a wide range of risks covering stocks and commodities or even currencies and interest rates. For retail investors, derivatives such as futures and options, which are easily tradable on stock exchanges, are most suited. You can hedge your investments by making investments in any of the available derivative instruments. But before that, you should try to understand how different derivative instruments work.

I have always found derivatives a bit puzzling. But for avoiding a sea of risks, you need to make friends with a devil.



Feb 4, 2010

Dow Theory Unplugged

The Dow Theory UNPLUGGED…!



The legacy of Charles Dow’s thoughts have continued to exist in the form of the Dow theory for more than 100 years now and with new believers joining, this theory is expected to remain popular for years to come.


What is THE DOW THEORY?

  • The Dow Theory believes that stock market prices follow a trend.
  • Dow, through his observations, arrived at the conclusion that prices move in a pattern.
  • If the market is going through an uptrend, then the prices will continue to rise until the uptrend changes into a downtrend.
  • The evidence of any change in the trend can be gathered by observing price charts.
  • In a way, the Dow Theory is based on the presumption that stock prices convey everything that is worth knowing about the stock.
  • Be it future earnings or fear of the future or just hope, almost everything is reflected in the current stock price.
  • But the focus of the Dow Theory is always on the changes in average price as reflected by some market index.
  • The Dow Theory relies upon the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transport Average for its analysis. But the theory should work as well with any other market index.
  • The focus on a market index helps in minimizing discrepancies that might creep in when observing individual securities.


Q. How can one know about the current market trend or the overall mood of the market by analyzing stock prices?


The Dow Theory says that three kinds of trends are seen working in the market.


Ø The first is the primary trend, which lasts from a few months to many years, and could be either bullish or bearish.


Ø Then we have a secondary trend that lasts from a few weeks to some months and that moves in the direction opposite to the direction of the primary trend.


So if the primary trend is bullish, then the secondary trend would come in the form of temporary corrections or fall in prices, and if the primary trend is bearish then the secondary trend would bring a temporary rally or rise in prices.


But once the secondary trend is over, the market continues its march in the direction of the primary trend.


Apart from primary and secondary trends, the market also sees day-to-day fluctuations that can last from one day to a week, during which the prices could move either in the direction of the primary trend or in the opposite direction.


Interestingly, day-to-day fluctuations don’t have much of a role in the Dow Theory. The main focus lies on identifying the primary trend and making investments based on that. Changes in the secondary trend are observed for deciding the direction of the primary trend. You can know about the overall direction of the market by watching both the trends simultaneously.


When you watch both primary and secondary trends, you would observe something like this:


The overall direction of the market over a period of, say, one year or two is decided by the direction of the primary trend, with the secondary trend acting as a temporary pull-back.


So the movement of a stock index would look like someone taking two steps forward and one step backward. In a market trending up, the market rises then falls a bit, then rises once again and reaches a point higher than the previous high.

In a down-trending market, the whole movement is reversed. The market falls then rises a bit, then falls once again to reach

Feb 3, 2010

DECODING THE JARGON

what exactly is a Ponzi Scheme!?!

What: The term Ponzi scheme is used to describe any fraudulent investment scheme that does not generate any actual profit and which pays back investors either by using their own money or by using the money of subsequent investors. The modus operandi is simple— pay Peter by using the money invested by Paul and pay Paul by using the money invested by Mary.

It is obvious that such a scheme of paying back one investor by taking money from the other is, sooner or later, bound to fail.

Ponzi schemes do offer something that many investors, high on adrenalin, can’t refuse: a high rate of return matched with consistent performance. To add credibility to such a mouth-watering promise, Ponzi schemes may sound as if they have discovered some secret formula that is not yet publicly accessible.

Whom: The term Ponzi scheme owes its origin to Charles Ponzi, who operated a fraudulent scheme in the US.

Why: Ponzi schemes ultimately fail because they can’t keep on generating the ever-increasing flow of money required to sustain repayments.

The main problem is that it is really very difficult to identify a Ponzi scheme in advance. Otherwise, why would anybody knowingly put his hand in the mouth of a ferocious dog?

New Ponzi schemes are successful in attracting new investors because they always look different.